All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg·May 9, 2026

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

  • Elon's Anthropic Deal: The deal involves Elon leasing compute capacity from his data centers (Colossus 1 and potentially Colossus 2) to Anthropic, receiving cash as payment. This provides significant incremental revenue for Elon's xAI/SpaceX ventures (estimated $4-5 billion this year), which will then be used to subsidize the development of Grok and its next-gen models. This strategy allows xAI to operate without massive upfront CapEx commitments for compute.
  • SpaceX IPO: Expected to trade at 40-50 times revenue, potentially reaching a valuation of $2 trillion with $40-50 billion in revenue next year. This high multiple is attributed to Elon's future pipeline of innovation across various sectors.
  • Anthropic: Projected to hit $100 billion in ARR by the end of the year, potentially reaching $1 trillion by 2027. This growth is driven by unprecedented demand for its AI models.
  • "Mag 7" Tech Companies (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla): Their current valuations are seen as fair, but Elon's companies receive a premium due to his perceived innovative pipeline. Nvidia (190 billion ARR), Apple (420 billion ARR), Microsoft (300 billion ARR), Alphabet (390 billion ARR), Amazon (700 billion ARR), Meta (185 billion ARR), Tesla (110 billion ARR) combined equal about $2.3-2.35 trillion.
  • Memory Stocks (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron): Currently undervalued at 5-7 times fully taxed GAAP earnings.
  • AI-Powered Cybersecurity: Tools like Mythos and OpenAI's models can be used by cybersecurity companies to enhance defense and scanning capabilities. Startups in AI-powered pen testing and other cybersecurity niches are seen as strong opportunities.
  • Polty Homes and Span: Partnership to put mini data centers with Nvidia GPU clusters inside homes, allowing residents to run AI applications. This creates a distributed compute network.
  • Investing in America Accounts (IPO for Kids/IPOK): A proposal for AI companies (and other large IPOs) to allocate a portion (e.g., 1-5%) of their IPO to every American citizen or to designated investment accounts for children.
  • Basic Science Contributions: Increased funding for basic scientific research could yield significant health advancements.
  • Tesla: Has the "Elon variable" built into its valuation, receiving a premium for its future innovation pipeline.

OVERVIEW

This episode discusses Elon Musk's strategic deal with Anthropic to secure compute for his xAI ventures, highlighting the escalating competition and resource constraints in the AI industry. It explores the implications of Anthropic's rapid growth and the debate around potential AI monopolies and regulatory oversight, including the controversial "FDA for AI" concept. The hosts also touch on the broader economic impact of AI, market performance, and societal shifts related to technological innovation and leadership.

KEY TOPICS

  • Elon Musk's compute deal with Anthropic and its strategic importance for xAI/Grok.
  • Anthropic's phenomenal revenue growth and projections for future valuation.
  • The critical role of compute and power infrastructure in AI development.
  • Concerns about AI leading to monopolies and calls for regulation.
  • The "FDA for AI" concept and potential for regulatory capture.
  • Comparison of major tech companies' performance and valuation in the AI era.
  • SpaceX's business model as a multi-layered platform.
  • Social and political resistance to data center construction in the US.
  • The economic impact of AI as a deflationary force driving productivity and job market changes.
  • Potential for AI to disrupt healthcare, education, and other sectors.
  • The concept of "vibe shift" in public perception of big tech and innovation.
  • Philanthropic and wealth distribution ideas in the context of AI prosperity.
  • Debates on minimum wage and universal healthcare as capitalist solutions.
  • Analysis of current market highs, hyper-scaler growth, and underlying economic strength.
  • The role of government policy (e.g., Trump administration) in fostering innovation and energy.

MAIN TAKEAWAYS

  • Elon's deal with Anthropic demonstrates a clever strategy to secure essential compute for xAI, leveraging existing infrastructure to accelerate Grok's development without immediate heavy CapEx.
  • Anthropic's exponential revenue growth is unprecedented in Silicon Valley, positioning it as a dominant force that could achieve an unheard-of scale and valuation, potentially leading to a new type of monopoly.
  • The debate around an "FDA for AI" highlights significant concerns about safety and control, but also fears that such regulation could stifle innovation, concentrate power, and become a tool for regulatory capture.
  • The lack of compute and power is the primary constraint on AI development, not demand or talent.
  • AI is fundamentally a deflationary technology that will drive massive productivity gains, benefiting the economy and consumers, though its initial benefits are primarily seen at the top.
  • There's a growing "vibe shift" where the public and markets are increasingly critical of traditional tech companies for perceived lack of innovation, while heavily rewarding ventures pushing true frontier technologies.
  • The US AI ecosystem is highly competitive, pushing innovation at an incredible pace, and is currently outpacing global rivals.
  • SpaceX's integrated business model, spanning launch, connectivity, compute, and applications, positions it uniquely to capitalize on the AI revolution and become a foundational infrastructure provider.
  • Despite negative media narratives, the US economy is experiencing significant growth, low unemployment, and rising wages, partly driven by AI's impact.

NOTABLE QUOTES

"This audience is brutal. They're brutal."
"The audio is brutal. They're brutal. They're brutal. It's a good thing I'm rich."
"Whoever that social media team is, is on fire."
"Those ads are incredible."
"He said if she went to the street she'd get stabbed in the neck."
"This is a Meg Republican's idea of what Los Angeles looks like."
"I think the deal is fantastic."
"This is entirely to do with the supply constraints that exist in data centers and specifically in power."
"We unfortunately have very poor leadership at the head of most of these AI firms."
"The political reaction now is starting to turn negative. The community reaction is negative."
"This is highly organized activists that are moving across the country to stir up trouble in the exact same way they did to stop all fission reactors being built 30 years ago in America."
"It's a critically important evolution to the story."
"I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental 4 to 5 billion dollars of revenue."
"He was building AWS all along or EWS all along."
"The only thing holding them back in the future was compute. Now they've made this deal."
"Antropic will be the most powerful monopoly ever created in human history."
"It's interesting to hear that word monopoly, Sacks, very interesting placement."
"We are on the winning horse in America. We're out in front of the rest of the world."
"You guys have stopped innovating. There's a lot of incrementalism and we as a society aren't benefiting broadly the way that you told us we would be."
"That does nothing for society anymore. In fact, it does the opposite. It—there is no good left."
"Tim Cook's greatest innovation was Apple TV. Not even the hardware product."
"You always want to be the company in the lead that's on that trajectory, where all you have to do is maintain inertia, whereas the other people have to change something in order to put themselves back in the race."
"Congratulate Dario on winning the AI race."
"If you look, Tim Cook's greatest innovation, Tim Cook's greatest innovation was Apple TV."
"This is not like organic, hyper-local protests by people in a community that aren't being spurred on."
"We just need to make markets free, ban data centers, it's that would be a much, a much worse choice."
"I want to congratulate all of our innovators and I want to congratulate Elon and Dario D. Rockefeller on their recent deal."

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